{
  "format": "delx/intent-card/v1",
  "id": "bitcoin-up-or-down-15-minute-probability-api",
  "intent": "estimate Bitcoin BTC up or down probability for the next 15 minute window",
  "title": "Bitcoin Up or Down 15-minute probability API",
  "description": "Estimate p_up and p_down for a fixed 15-minute BTC window from caller-supplied observations for $0.003. Conservative local math, explicit input quality and model limits; no live feed, venue access, trade, or accuracy guarantee.",
  "keywords": [
    "Bitcoin up or down 15m",
    "BTC 15 minute probability API",
    "Bitcoin prediction market API",
    "x402 BTC signal",
    "short horizon crypto probability"
  ],
  "updated_at": "2026-08-30",
  "canonical_url": "https://commerce.delx.ai/intents/bitcoin-up-or-down-15-minute-probability-api",
  "machine_url": "https://commerce.delx.ai/intents/bitcoin-up-or-down-15-minute-probability-api.json",
  "recommendation": {
    "tool_name": "estimate_bitcoin_up_down_15m",
    "service_name": "Bitcoin Up or Down 15-Minute Probability",
    "method": "POST",
    "resource": "https://api.delx.ai/api/v1/x402/bitcoin-up-down-15m",
    "price_usdc": "0.003",
    "payment_protocols": [
      "x402"
    ],
    "input_schema": {
      "type": "object",
      "properties": {
        "observations": {
          "type": "array",
          "minItems": 8,
          "maxItems": 240,
          "description": "Eight to 240 caller-supplied observations ordered oldest to newest.",
          "items": {
            "type": "object",
            "properties": {
              "timestamp": {
                "type": "integer",
                "minimum": 1,
                "description": "Unix timestamp in seconds."
              },
              "price": {
                "type": "number",
                "minimum": 1e-12,
                "maximum": 1000000000000000,
                "description": "Finite caller-supplied asset price in the supported numeric range."
              }
            },
            "required": [
              "timestamp",
              "price"
            ],
            "additionalProperties": false
          }
        },
        "window_open_price": {
          "type": "number",
          "minimum": 1e-12,
          "maximum": 1000000000000000,
          "description": "Caller-supplied opening price under the target venue's own rules."
        },
        "window_close_timestamp": {
          "type": "integer",
          "minimum": 1,
          "description": "Unix close timestamp in seconds, later than the newest observation."
        },
        "market_up_price": {
          "type": "number",
          "minimum": 0,
          "maximum": 1,
          "description": "Optional caller-supplied UP share price for model-edge comparison."
        },
        "market_down_price": {
          "type": "number",
          "minimum": 0,
          "maximum": 1,
          "description": "Optional caller-supplied DOWN share price for model-edge comparison."
        },
        "fee_bps": {
          "type": "integer",
          "minimum": 0,
          "maximum": 1000,
          "default": 0,
          "description": "Optional estimated entry fee in basis points."
        }
      },
      "required": [
        "observations",
        "window_open_price",
        "window_close_timestamp"
      ],
      "additionalProperties": false
    },
    "example_input": {
      "observations": [
        {
          "timestamp": 1799999100,
          "price": 100000
        },
        {
          "timestamp": 1799999212,
          "price": 100035
        },
        {
          "timestamp": 1799999324,
          "price": 100070
        },
        {
          "timestamp": 1799999436,
          "price": 100105
        },
        {
          "timestamp": 1799999548,
          "price": 100140
        },
        {
          "timestamp": 1799999660,
          "price": 100175
        },
        {
          "timestamp": 1799999772,
          "price": 100210
        },
        {
          "timestamp": 1799999884,
          "price": 100245
        }
      ],
      "window_open_price": 100000,
      "window_close_timestamp": 1800000000,
      "market_up_price": 0.48,
      "market_down_price": 0.54,
      "fee_bps": 50
    },
    "example_output": {
      "schema": "delx/prediction-updown-estimate/v1",
      "status": "estimate",
      "asset": "BTC",
      "horizon_minutes": 15,
      "input_provenance": "caller_supplied",
      "estimate": {
        "p_up": 0.800406,
        "p_down": 0.199594,
        "lean": "up"
      },
      "data_quality": {
        "score": 0.754056,
        "label": "adequate_input_coverage",
        "observations_used": 8
      },
      "model": {
        "version": "delx-local-updown-v1",
        "probability_is_uncalibrated": true,
        "no_live_market_data": true,
        "deterministic_for_same_input": true
      },
      "warnings": [
        "caller_supplied_prices_not_verified",
        "probability_is_uncalibrated",
        "not_trading_advice"
      ]
    },
    "agentcash": {
      "buy": "npx agentcash@latest fetch https://api.delx.ai/api/v1/x402/bitcoin-up-down-15m -m POST -H 'x-delx-source: intent-card-bitcoin-up-or-down-15-minute-probability-api' --max-amount 0.003 -b '{\"observations\":[{\"timestamp\":1799999100,\"price\":100000},{\"timestamp\":1799999212,\"price\":100035},{\"timestamp\":1799999324,\"price\":100070},{\"timestamp\":1799999436,\"price\":100105},{\"timestamp\":1799999548,\"price\":100140},{\"timestamp\":1799999660,\"price\":100175},{\"timestamp\":1799999772,\"price\":100210},{\"timestamp\":1799999884,\"price\":100245}],\"window_open_price\":100000,\"window_close_timestamp\":1800000000,\"market_up_price\":0.48,\"market_down_price\":0.54,\"fee_bps\":50}'",
      "max_amount_usdc": "0.003"
    }
  },
  "attribution": {
    "header": "x-delx-source",
    "value": "intent-card-bitcoin-up-or-down-15-minute-probability-api"
  },
  "evidence": {
    "paid_openapi": "https://api.delx.ai/openapi.x402.json",
    "governed_portfolio": "https://api.delx.ai/x402-portfolio.json",
    "live_contract": "https://api.delx.ai/api/v1/x402/bitcoin-up-down-15m"
  }
}