{
  "format": "delx/discovery-pack/v1",
  "id": "crypto-up-down-probability-estimates",
  "title": "BTC and ETH up or down probability estimates",
  "description": "Six fixed-horizon BTC and ETH probability estimates for agents that already control their price observations and venue rules. Each $0.003 route returns p_up, p_down, input quality, model limits, warnings, and optional descriptive edge without fetching a live feed or placing a trade.",
  "audience": "Prediction-market, forecasting, research, and risk agents",
  "query": "Bitcoin Ethereum up or down probability API for 5 15 or 30 minute prediction market windows",
  "keywords": [
    "Bitcoin up or down API",
    "Ethereum up or down API",
    "BTC 5m 15m 30m probability",
    "ETH 5m 15m 30m probability",
    "prediction market probability API",
    "x402 crypto signals",
    "caller supplied market data"
  ],
  "updated_at": "2026-08-30",
  "canonical_url": "https://commerce.delx.ai/packs/crypto-up-down-probability-estimates",
  "machine_url": "https://commerce.delx.ai/packs/crypto-up-down-probability-estimates.json",
  "entrypoints": {
    "human": "https://commerce.delx.ai/?q=Bitcoin%20Ethereum%20up%20or%20down%20probability%20API%20for%205%2015%20or%2030%20minute%20prediction%20market%20windows",
    "intent_search": "https://api.delx.ai/api/v1/x402/start?q=Bitcoin%20Ethereum%20up%20or%20down%20probability%20API%20for%205%2015%20or%2030%20minute%20prediction%20market%20windows",
    "graph": "https://commerce.delx.ai/discovery.json"
  },
  "attribution": {
    "header": "x-delx-source",
    "value": "discovery-pack-crypto-up-down-probability-estimates"
  },
  "products": [
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      "service_name": "Bitcoin Up or Down 5-Minute Probability",
      "category": "prediction-markets",
      "price_usdc": "0.003",
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      "route": "/api/v1/x402/bitcoin-up-down-5m",
      "product_url": "https://commerce.delx.ai/products/estimate-bitcoin-up-down-5m",
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            "minItems": 8,
            "maxItems": 240,
            "description": "Eight to 240 caller-supplied observations ordered oldest to newest.",
            "items": {
              "type": "object",
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                  "type": "integer",
                  "minimum": 1,
                  "description": "Unix timestamp in seconds."
                },
                "price": {
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                  "minimum": 1e-12,
                  "maximum": 1000000000000000,
                  "description": "Finite caller-supplied asset price in the supported numeric range."
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              "additionalProperties": false
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          },
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            "type": "number",
            "minimum": 1e-12,
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            "description": "Caller-supplied opening price under the target venue's own rules."
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            "description": "Unix close timestamp in seconds, later than the newest observation."
          },
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            "minimum": 0,
            "maximum": 1,
            "description": "Optional caller-supplied UP share price for model-edge comparison."
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            "maximum": 1,
            "description": "Optional caller-supplied DOWN share price for model-edge comparison."
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          "fee_bps": {
            "type": "integer",
            "minimum": 0,
            "maximum": 1000,
            "default": 0,
            "description": "Optional estimated entry fee in basis points."
          }
        },
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          {
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        "window_open_price": 100000,
        "window_close_timestamp": 1800000000,
        "market_up_price": 0.48,
        "market_down_price": 0.54,
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      "service_name": "Bitcoin Up or Down 15-Minute Probability",
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                  "description": "Unix timestamp in seconds."
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            "description": "Optional caller-supplied UP share price for model-edge comparison."
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            "description": "Optional caller-supplied DOWN share price for model-edge comparison."
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            "type": "integer",
            "minimum": 0,
            "maximum": 1000,
            "default": 0,
            "description": "Optional estimated entry fee in basis points."
          }
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        "required": [
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        "window_close_timestamp": 1800000000,
        "market_up_price": 0.48,
        "market_down_price": 0.54,
        "fee_bps": 50
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      "agentcash_buy": "npx agentcash@latest fetch https://api.delx.ai/api/v1/x402/bitcoin-up-down-15m -m POST -H 'x-delx-source: discovery-pack-crypto-up-down-probability-estimates' --max-amount 0.003 -b '{\"observations\":[{\"timestamp\":1799999100,\"price\":100000},{\"timestamp\":1799999212,\"price\":100035},{\"timestamp\":1799999324,\"price\":100070},{\"timestamp\":1799999436,\"price\":100105},{\"timestamp\":1799999548,\"price\":100140},{\"timestamp\":1799999660,\"price\":100175},{\"timestamp\":1799999772,\"price\":100210},{\"timestamp\":1799999884,\"price\":100245}],\"window_open_price\":100000,\"window_close_timestamp\":1800000000,\"market_up_price\":0.48,\"market_down_price\":0.54,\"fee_bps\":50}'"
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      "category": "prediction-markets",
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      "method": "POST",
      "route": "/api/v1/x402/bitcoin-up-down-30m",
      "product_url": "https://commerce.delx.ai/products/estimate-bitcoin-up-down-30m",
      "intent_url": "https://commerce.delx.ai/intents/bitcoin-up-or-down-30-minute-probability-api",
      "machine_url": "https://commerce.delx.ai/intents/bitcoin-up-or-down-30-minute-probability-api.json",
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            "description": "Eight to 240 caller-supplied observations ordered oldest to newest.",
            "items": {
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                  "type": "integer",
                  "minimum": 1,
                  "description": "Unix timestamp in seconds."
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                  "minimum": 1e-12,
                  "maximum": 1000000000000000,
                  "description": "Finite caller-supplied asset price in the supported numeric range."
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          "window_open_price": {
            "type": "number",
            "minimum": 1e-12,
            "maximum": 1000000000000000,
            "description": "Caller-supplied opening price under the target venue's own rules."
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            "type": "integer",
            "minimum": 1,
            "description": "Unix close timestamp in seconds, later than the newest observation."
          },
          "market_up_price": {
            "type": "number",
            "minimum": 0,
            "maximum": 1,
            "description": "Optional caller-supplied UP share price for model-edge comparison."
          },
          "market_down_price": {
            "type": "number",
            "minimum": 0,
            "maximum": 1,
            "description": "Optional caller-supplied DOWN share price for model-edge comparison."
          },
          "fee_bps": {
            "type": "integer",
            "minimum": 0,
            "maximum": 1000,
            "default": 0,
            "description": "Optional estimated entry fee in basis points."
          }
        },
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          "window_open_price",
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        ],
        "additionalProperties": false
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        "observations": [
          {
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            "price": 100000
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            "price": 100035
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            "price": 100070
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            "timestamp": 1799998875,
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            "timestamp": 1799999100,
            "price": 100140
          },
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            "timestamp": 1799999325,
            "price": 100175
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            "timestamp": 1799999550,
            "price": 100210
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        ],
        "window_open_price": 100000,
        "window_close_timestamp": 1800000000,
        "market_up_price": 0.48,
        "market_down_price": 0.54,
        "fee_bps": 50
      },
      "agentcash_buy": "npx agentcash@latest fetch https://api.delx.ai/api/v1/x402/bitcoin-up-down-30m -m POST -H 'x-delx-source: discovery-pack-crypto-up-down-probability-estimates' --max-amount 0.003 -b '{\"observations\":[{\"timestamp\":1799998200,\"price\":100000},{\"timestamp\":1799998425,\"price\":100035},{\"timestamp\":1799998650,\"price\":100070},{\"timestamp\":1799998875,\"price\":100105},{\"timestamp\":1799999100,\"price\":100140},{\"timestamp\":1799999325,\"price\":100175},{\"timestamp\":1799999550,\"price\":100210},{\"timestamp\":1799999775,\"price\":100245}],\"window_open_price\":100000,\"window_close_timestamp\":1800000000,\"market_up_price\":0.48,\"market_down_price\":0.54,\"fee_bps\":50}'"
    },
    {
      "tool_name": "estimate_ethereum_up_down_5m",
      "service_name": "Ethereum Up or Down 5-Minute Probability",
      "category": "prediction-markets",
      "price_usdc": "0.003",
      "method": "POST",
      "route": "/api/v1/x402/ethereum-up-down-5m",
      "product_url": "https://commerce.delx.ai/products/estimate-ethereum-up-down-5m",
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                  "type": "integer",
                  "minimum": 1,
                  "description": "Unix timestamp in seconds."
                },
                "price": {
                  "type": "number",
                  "minimum": 1e-12,
                  "maximum": 1000000000000000,
                  "description": "Finite caller-supplied asset price in the supported numeric range."
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              "additionalProperties": false
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          },
          "window_open_price": {
            "type": "number",
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            "maximum": 1000000000000000,
            "description": "Caller-supplied opening price under the target venue's own rules."
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            "type": "integer",
            "minimum": 1,
            "description": "Unix close timestamp in seconds, later than the newest observation."
          },
          "market_up_price": {
            "type": "number",
            "minimum": 0,
            "maximum": 1,
            "description": "Optional caller-supplied UP share price for model-edge comparison."
          },
          "market_down_price": {
            "type": "number",
            "minimum": 0,
            "maximum": 1,
            "description": "Optional caller-supplied DOWN share price for model-edge comparison."
          },
          "fee_bps": {
            "type": "integer",
            "minimum": 0,
            "maximum": 1000,
            "default": 0,
            "description": "Optional estimated entry fee in basis points."
          }
        },
        "required": [
          "observations",
          "window_open_price",
          "window_close_timestamp"
        ],
        "additionalProperties": false
      },
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        "observations": [
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            "price": 4000
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            "price": 4001.4
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        "window_open_price": 4000,
        "window_close_timestamp": 1800000000,
        "market_up_price": 0.48,
        "market_down_price": 0.54,
        "fee_bps": 50
      },
      "agentcash_buy": "npx agentcash@latest fetch https://api.delx.ai/api/v1/x402/ethereum-up-down-5m -m POST -H 'x-delx-source: discovery-pack-crypto-up-down-probability-estimates' --max-amount 0.003 -b '{\"observations\":[{\"timestamp\":1799999700,\"price\":4000},{\"timestamp\":1799999737,\"price\":4001.4},{\"timestamp\":1799999774,\"price\":4002.8},{\"timestamp\":1799999811,\"price\":4004.2},{\"timestamp\":1799999848,\"price\":4005.6},{\"timestamp\":1799999885,\"price\":4007},{\"timestamp\":1799999922,\"price\":4008.4},{\"timestamp\":1799999959,\"price\":4009.8}],\"window_open_price\":4000,\"window_close_timestamp\":1800000000,\"market_up_price\":0.48,\"market_down_price\":0.54,\"fee_bps\":50}'"
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    {
      "tool_name": "estimate_ethereum_up_down_15m",
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      "category": "prediction-markets",
      "price_usdc": "0.003",
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            "description": "Caller-supplied opening price under the target venue's own rules."
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            "description": "Unix close timestamp in seconds, later than the newest observation."
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            "type": "number",
            "minimum": 0,
            "maximum": 1,
            "description": "Optional caller-supplied UP share price for model-edge comparison."
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            "type": "number",
            "minimum": 0,
            "maximum": 1,
            "description": "Optional caller-supplied DOWN share price for model-edge comparison."
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          "fee_bps": {
            "type": "integer",
            "minimum": 0,
            "maximum": 1000,
            "default": 0,
            "description": "Optional estimated entry fee in basis points."
          }
        },
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          "window_close_timestamp"
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        "additionalProperties": false
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        "window_open_price": 4000,
        "window_close_timestamp": 1800000000,
        "market_up_price": 0.48,
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      },
      "agentcash_buy": "npx agentcash@latest fetch https://api.delx.ai/api/v1/x402/ethereum-up-down-15m -m POST -H 'x-delx-source: discovery-pack-crypto-up-down-probability-estimates' --max-amount 0.003 -b '{\"observations\":[{\"timestamp\":1799999100,\"price\":4000},{\"timestamp\":1799999212,\"price\":4001.4},{\"timestamp\":1799999324,\"price\":4002.8},{\"timestamp\":1799999436,\"price\":4004.2},{\"timestamp\":1799999548,\"price\":4005.6},{\"timestamp\":1799999660,\"price\":4007},{\"timestamp\":1799999772,\"price\":4008.4},{\"timestamp\":1799999884,\"price\":4009.8}],\"window_open_price\":4000,\"window_close_timestamp\":1800000000,\"market_up_price\":0.48,\"market_down_price\":0.54,\"fee_bps\":50}'"
    },
    {
      "tool_name": "estimate_ethereum_up_down_30m",
      "service_name": "Ethereum Up or Down 30-Minute Probability",
      "category": "prediction-markets",
      "price_usdc": "0.003",
      "method": "POST",
      "route": "/api/v1/x402/ethereum-up-down-30m",
      "product_url": "https://commerce.delx.ai/products/estimate-ethereum-up-down-30m",
      "intent_url": "https://commerce.delx.ai/intents/ethereum-up-or-down-30-minute-probability-api",
      "machine_url": "https://commerce.delx.ai/intents/ethereum-up-or-down-30-minute-probability-api.json",
      "input_schema": {
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            "maxItems": 240,
            "description": "Eight to 240 caller-supplied observations ordered oldest to newest.",
            "items": {
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              "properties": {
                "timestamp": {
                  "type": "integer",
                  "minimum": 1,
                  "description": "Unix timestamp in seconds."
                },
                "price": {
                  "type": "number",
                  "minimum": 1e-12,
                  "maximum": 1000000000000000,
                  "description": "Finite caller-supplied asset price in the supported numeric range."
                }
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              "required": [
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              "additionalProperties": false
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          },
          "window_open_price": {
            "type": "number",
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            "maximum": 1000000000000000,
            "description": "Caller-supplied opening price under the target venue's own rules."
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          "window_close_timestamp": {
            "type": "integer",
            "minimum": 1,
            "description": "Unix close timestamp in seconds, later than the newest observation."
          },
          "market_up_price": {
            "type": "number",
            "minimum": 0,
            "maximum": 1,
            "description": "Optional caller-supplied UP share price for model-edge comparison."
          },
          "market_down_price": {
            "type": "number",
            "minimum": 0,
            "maximum": 1,
            "description": "Optional caller-supplied DOWN share price for model-edge comparison."
          },
          "fee_bps": {
            "type": "integer",
            "minimum": 0,
            "maximum": 1000,
            "default": 0,
            "description": "Optional estimated entry fee in basis points."
          }
        },
        "required": [
          "observations",
          "window_open_price",
          "window_close_timestamp"
        ],
        "additionalProperties": false
      },
      "example_input": {
        "observations": [
          {
            "timestamp": 1799998200,
            "price": 4000
          },
          {
            "timestamp": 1799998425,
            "price": 4001.4
          },
          {
            "timestamp": 1799998650,
            "price": 4002.8
          },
          {
            "timestamp": 1799998875,
            "price": 4004.2
          },
          {
            "timestamp": 1799999100,
            "price": 4005.6
          },
          {
            "timestamp": 1799999325,
            "price": 4007
          },
          {
            "timestamp": 1799999550,
            "price": 4008.4
          },
          {
            "timestamp": 1799999775,
            "price": 4009.8
          }
        ],
        "window_open_price": 4000,
        "window_close_timestamp": 1800000000,
        "market_up_price": 0.48,
        "market_down_price": 0.54,
        "fee_bps": 50
      },
      "agentcash_buy": "npx agentcash@latest fetch https://api.delx.ai/api/v1/x402/ethereum-up-down-30m -m POST -H 'x-delx-source: discovery-pack-crypto-up-down-probability-estimates' --max-amount 0.003 -b '{\"observations\":[{\"timestamp\":1799998200,\"price\":4000},{\"timestamp\":1799998425,\"price\":4001.4},{\"timestamp\":1799998650,\"price\":4002.8},{\"timestamp\":1799998875,\"price\":4004.2},{\"timestamp\":1799999100,\"price\":4005.6},{\"timestamp\":1799999325,\"price\":4007},{\"timestamp\":1799999550,\"price\":4008.4},{\"timestamp\":1799999775,\"price\":4009.8}],\"window_open_price\":4000,\"window_close_timestamp\":1800000000,\"market_up_price\":0.48,\"market_down_price\":0.54,\"fee_bps\":50}'"
    }
  ]
}