Bitcoin Up or Down 15-Minute Probability

{
  "observations": [
    {
      "timestamp": 1799999100,
      "price": 100000
    },
    {
      "timestamp": 1799999212,
      "price": 100035
    },
    {
      "timestamp": 1799999324,
      "price": 100070
    },
    {
      "timestamp": 1799999436,
      "price": 100105
    },
    {
      "timestamp": 1799999548,
      "price": 100140
    },
    {
      "timestamp": 1799999660,
      "price": 100175
    },
    {
      "timestamp": 1799999772,
      "price": 100210
    },
    {
      "timestamp": 1799999884,
      "price": 100245
    }
  ],
  "window_open_price": 100000,
  "window_close_timestamp": 1800000000,
  "market_up_price": 0.48,
  "market_down_price": 0.54,
  "fee_bps": 50
}

{
  "schema": "delx/prediction-updown-estimate/v1",
  "status": "estimate",
  "asset": "BTC",
  "horizon_minutes": 15,
  "input_provenance": "caller_supplied",
  "estimate": {
    "p_up": 0.800406,
    "p_down": 0.199594,
    "lean": "up"
  },
  "data_quality": {
    "score": 0.754056,
    "label": "adequate_input_coverage",
    "observations_used": 8
  },
  "model": {
    "version": "delx-local-updown-v1",
    "probability_is_uncalibrated": true,
    "no_live_market_data": true,
    "deterministic_for_same_input": true
  },
  "warnings": [
    "caller_supplied_prices_not_verified",
    "probability_is_uncalibrated",
    "not_trading_advice"
  ]
}