{
"observations": [
{
"timestamp": 1799999700,
"price": 4000
},
{
"timestamp": 1799999737,
"price": 4001.4
},
{
"timestamp": 1799999774,
"price": 4002.8
},
{
"timestamp": 1799999811,
"price": 4004.2
},
{
"timestamp": 1799999848,
"price": 4005.6
},
{
"timestamp": 1799999885,
"price": 4007
},
{
"timestamp": 1799999922,
"price": 4008.4
},
{
"timestamp": 1799999959,
"price": 4009.8
}
],
"window_open_price": 4000,
"window_close_timestamp": 1800000000,
"market_up_price": 0.48,
"market_down_price": 0.54,
"fee_bps": 50
}
Prediction-market estimates · prediction-markets
Ethereum Up or Down 5-Minute Probability
Ethereum Up or Down 5-Minute Probability estimates p_up and p_down for rapid near-close windows where the freshest supplied observations matter most. Send 8-240 ordered caller-supplied ETH price observations, the target venue's opening price, and its close timestamp; optionally include UP/DOWN share prices and entry fees for a descriptive model-edge comparison. Returns a conservative probability pair, lean, input-quality score, model contract, and warnings for $0.003 USDC via x402 on Base or Solana. First-party, deterministic, memory-only execution with no input retention. It does not fetch exchange, oracle, or prediction-venue data; it never signs or places a trade. The probability is uncalibrated, venue resolution rules are not verified, and the output is not trading advice.
One-command purchase
Run it from an agent.
No account or API key. AgentCash reads the 402 challenge, pays no more than the declared cap, retries the request and returns the result.
npx agentcash@latest fetch https://api.delx.ai/api/v1/x402/ethereum-up-down-5m -m POST -H 'x-delx-source: product-page' --max-amount 0.003 -b '{"observations":[{"timestamp":1799999700,"price":4000},{"timestamp":1799999737,"price":4001.4},{"timestamp":1799999774,"price":4002.8},{"timestamp":1799999811,"price":4004.2},{"timestamp":1799999848,"price":4005.6},{"timestamp":1799999885,"price":4007},{"timestamp":1799999922,"price":4008.4},{"timestamp":1799999959,"price":4009.8}],"window_open_price":4000,"window_close_timestamp":1800000000,"market_up_price":0.48,"market_down_price":0.54,"fee_bps":50}'
{
"schema": "delx/prediction-updown-estimate/v1",
"status": "estimate",
"asset": "ETH",
"horizon_minutes": 5,
"input_provenance": "caller_supplied",
"estimate": {
"p_up": 0.79955,
"p_down": 0.20045,
"lean": "up"
},
"data_quality": {
"score": 0.7455,
"label": "adequate_input_coverage",
"observations_used": 8
},
"model": {
"version": "delx-local-updown-v1",
"probability_is_uncalibrated": true,
"no_live_market_data": true,
"deterministic_for_same_input": true
},
"warnings": [
"caller_supplied_prices_not_verified",
"probability_is_uncalibrated",
"not_trading_advice"
]
}
Machine-readable evidence